The impact of political-economic events on the return of the common stock prices of large retail banks listed on B3 from 2015 to 2023

Abstract

The scenario of an increase in the number of investors in B3 of around 93% from 2019 to 2020, brings urgency to the dissemination of financial education in the country. In line with this, the objective of this research is to evaluate whether the returns on common stock prices of large retail banks listed on B3 vary in a statistically significant way after relevant events of a political-economic nature. For this investigation, the event study methodology was used, through which six events were analyzed in the period from 2015 to 2023, whose sample consists of the common stock prices of Banco Santander (SANB3), Banco Itaú Unibanco (ITUB3) and Banco do Brasil (BBAS3). As a result of the research, what stands out is that recessions do not affect in a statistically significant way the return on the price of common shares of the mentioned banks; the presidential elections affect, in a statistically significant way, the return on the price of common shares of Banco do Brasil, but the other banks did not have the same impact; insolvency scenarios in the financial market affect, in a statistically significant way, the return on Itaú's share price, a scenario that was not observed in the other selected banks. The main contribution of this study is to show the behavior of investors regarding their investments in stocks in the financial sector in times of crisis, which contributes to the promotion of financial education.